Changes in direction

In light of the September 11th activities the US will endeavor to take a war to various terrorist groups. The questions that this action raise are far reaching, not only in the international arena, but also in domestic defense issues.

The Pentagon has at its disposal a formidable array of weapons and systems, people and facilities. Most are going to be of little use in the up coming years. A complete redesign of a limited section of the military and intelligence community is going to be required to track, locate and exterminate the terrorist cells. It is going to be an extremely tough task. Larger special forces groups with almost assassin like training will be needed, the intelligence community is going to need better ELINT tools, and wider spectrum photo reconnaissance capabilities (to see through camouflage).

On the domestic front certain projects will probably require increased priorities, others diminished priorities. The V-22 Osprey systems will probably need to be fixed and fielded, in a hurry; more airlift will be required, so C-5 updates and C-17 buys may need to be revisited. However, projects like the JSF and NMD may have to take a lower priority as clearly the target de jour is not going to be influenced by either of these systems. The F-22 seems to have slipped through any potential cuts and into production during the last week or two, with an $800Million build order from the Pentagon.

Weapon systems that will likely be used include precision munitions. The stockpiles of these are adequate at best, ramping up production will probably be needed, hopefully the Bosnian situation will not be repeated with dire shortages being evidenced. Infantry anti-tank weapons will get some use, mainly by special forces looking for some hand held artillery, there should probably be enough of this - the Cold War and Gulf War used little of it. Other equipment might be in short supply however; items like night fighting gear and secure satellite radio equipment for a large force of special forces personnel.

Infrastructure changes in the FBI and CIA will be needed in light of the terrible omissions made by these organizations; care will have to be taken in how that reorganization occurs and how information will be passed about. Both the FBI and CIA will need to build auditing groups in that can set assurance levels on information, check that information is pertinent, and that it is as complete as it can be. Guarantees on the safety of sources of sensitive data need to be made, so that penetrations or accidental disclosures from these institutions do not unduly sacrifice work. The audit groups will carry the can for making sure that people feel confident the information being exchanged as complete and accurate as it can be (in an arena where completeness and accuracy are rarely possible.)

We also need Plan 'B', when all else fails there should be some stop gap measure. If terrorists can hijack planes we need to make planes that its physically hard to hijack. The military have for years flown aircraft (mostly sensitive intelligence aircraft) where the pilot and co-pilot are physically separated from the rest of the flight crew, such separation should be mandated in domestic aircraft. A bulkhead stretch to allow two egress doors in the sides of the fuselage for the cockpit crew, catering facilities, toilet and maybe on longer duration flights, space for additional pilots, but certainly no doors or access from the main cabin. We also have to consider how we go about neutralizing people in trains or on trucks in non- lethal manners, perhaps using high energy ultra- low frequency systems.

Friends in old Enemies

On the diplomatic front, China could be influenced into quiescence with reassurances that NMD will not go into production but stay in research mode, possibly also with the sweetener that the Navy will pull back from positions close to Taiwan, on the understanding that nothing will happen in that direction. The Russians have too many axes to grind in this part of the World; there are probably more easily offered olive branches than can be listed or are worth listing that would placate their feelings and forge a new future of détente with them, and also provide the means to reach certain terrorist training areas more readily.

The dropping of trade restrictions against Pakistan and India is sure to make these countries more open to discussions; their losses in the Towers will also impact how they perceive America's need for long term action against terrorist groups. This would be an ideal time to establish a better future with India in respect of the Indian Ocean and its patrol. India also has interests in Sri Lanka, where Muslim and Hindu extremists have been at each others throats for years, the violence of which has occasionally leaked onto the main Indian sub-continent.

If America is careful in its use of force, then many countries in the middle east will likely accept the social stress; however if the US decides to bomb gratuitously and widely, any and all possible targets then only the most rabid will support action. Care and precision; use of special forces; use of precision weapons, will all lead to a more palatable 'war.'