What will show the end is at hand?

This has been a long hard slump for Information Technology people of all ilk's. From individuals to companies, the IT downturn has been long and hard. What do we need to look for to give us a hint that the worst is over and better times are returning?

The Past

There has never been an IT depression like this before, ever. There are few guidelines to go by. However, there are some things in the past, related to technology 'paradigm' changes that may be of use in spotting something.

I can only speak to experience that goes back to the dawn of the PC (circa 1976), cataclysmic changes before that I will ignore

The arrival of the PC took the Mini-computer industry by storm. They tried to downsize mini's to be more appropriate to departments, but the flexibility was never there, so the Mini manufacturers died (Wang, Dec, Bull, Burroughs, Sperry, et al). The fallout was massive layoffs in Massachusetts. It also fostered new (PC related) industries in California, Texas, and various parts of the world including Taiwan and Malaysia.

When the PC server stirred in the mid-80's, Novell sky rocketed, but big boys like IBM, Amdahl, ICL fell and either were consumed or had to take a deep breath and reinvent themselves. The change was far reaching; people shuffled out of big server rooms and found themselves in much smaller teams, re-trained to the new rising paradigms of Client And Server.

The Dot com revolution, while it may look to have bombed at the moment, has set in place a whole new set of changes that companies will have to digest. These include an IT infrastructure that is ever more integrated into how the company actually functions, less of it being just computers on peoples desks.

Outsourcing has seen many changes implemented, some good, some not, but the changes have seen a shift of people from one area to another, principally (in this country) to Consulting companies.

Each shift caused companies to fail and people to be thrown on the garbage heap of Life before the new ways refreshed the old blood with new techniques and the people were brought back on.

Pointers?

One uptick could be seen in PC vendors. They might see a lift in sales, the result of replacement desktops rather than anything profound like broad new investment.

We might also see a more diverse group of computer manufacturers come up; the likes of Palm or RIM could possibly see a rise in demand and consequent profits

I think one of the biggest markers will be if Oracle/Sybase/IBM/Microsoft begin to see increases in sales of databases. These will be needed as relatively long lead items for any new systems - probably seen even before the development teams are brought in.

In prior epochs, the rise in demand for Project Managers and then Project Leaders presaged a lift in demand for programmers, but this time I think the initial demand will be felt at the other end, in the need for more junior programmers, people being used to update existing applications on an increasing basis, before companies begin the justification stages of creating replacements for the old junk.

The changes that need to occur could also come from different sectors of the economy: with the impressive numbers Personal Spending has borne the last 12 months, the manufacturing industry sectors that handle the demands of Target, Home Depot, Lowes and Walmart could well become the first sectors to start greater investment.

IT is here to stay, companies cannot survive without it. What IT does or is may be in question but what is not at question is that to increase productivity and open new channels will take renewed IT spending and with that people.