Through a beer glass, dimly

Crystal ball time again. Not sure the ball has such good optics, but you know, got to try.

Linux.

This could be a really big year for Linux, and it has nothing to do with Linux per se. It has more to do with the use of new AMD and Intel x86-64 chips. These new 64bit instruction set chips, which came out over the last 18 months or so, will mean that cheap hardware can be used to bring big system performance to software like databases and application servers. No need to go buy a big IBM or Sun box, just get the latest dual core AMD Opteron or Intel EM64T capable processor, and off you go. You are now in the land of 64 bit words and significant data throughput. This change will be less noticed in the Windows world because Microsoft is being very slow bring out stable versions of their 64 bit operating systems. The Linux world has take these chips to heart and it could mean a whole new set of applications will migrate into corporate server rooms on cheap hardware and running 64-bit Linux versions.

Gigabit networking and beyond.

Wired networks have been stranded for a long time at 100 megabits, over the last year or so gigabit level chipsets have become much cheaper leading to more workstation level products, including network cards, hubs and switches. This will see a big burst in retro fitting networks to make use of the added bandwidth, especially for the growing number of media rich applications that aim at the desktop. Additionally, wireless networks are fast approaching real 100megabit performance themselves, certainly over shorter distances. This will continue to improve, and maybe by year end we will start to see gigabit wireless technologies being floated. In the server room and underground the use of multi-spectral fiber optic devices will allow the bandwidth available to those that can pay for such staggering levels, potentially reaching terabit levels for some clients with deep pockets, and not just academia.

.NET 2.0

Released this past October, .Net 2.0 is fast becoming a feature rich, reliable and very fast programming environment. The use of standards is also allowing open source advocates to create versions of the underlying runtime engine that allow true cross-platform use (not that I am a great believer in cross-platform). The languages that are built on the CLR are also packing some very powerful features, which will make them much more suited to corporate development needs. I like .NET . It is a fast, and quite reliable tool. The syntax of the C# language is very clean, much like the syntax behind Java, but the CLR hasn't yet got the issues that plague JVM's. I think corporate pick up of .NET 2.0 will become quite pronounced in 2006, particularly as web services are so well ensconced in the corporate landscape, and .NET 2.0 is so well aligned to that metaphor.

Outsourcing.

It is becoming a way of life. It will become more so. But corporations are going to find that there are certain things that need local talent. Further more, to start up a new company outsourcing is the kiss of death as you are unable to really control software direction, quality or applicability to new niches that open up. I think, therefore, that niches for software development talent will continue to exist. Additionally, the outsourcers will find that there are more dimensions to this than first meets the eye; mid-western lifestyles, with low(er) cost of living, and lower wage demands are already making the US it's own outsourcing partner - and people in the Mid-west nominally speak the same language as the coasts! I still contend that we will see internal competition for software development skills in India, China and other countries, start to cause an up-tick in wages that will start to equalized the price disparity with the US and Europe. However, until the MBA's and Wall Street morons realize that cheap is not the only dimension in product development, and that selling the crown jewels and business know-how is a one way street, we will not rectify the headlong charge American corporations have taken in sending work overseas.

Patents, Copyrights & DMCA

The situation with respect to software and Patents is, pun intended, patently absurd. Soon there will be a coming together that will tear the heart out of the Patent business. Either the lawyers will finally kill the golden goose by making it impossible to prove you are not using someone's patent, or they will prove that patents can't exist. Either way we all loose. We need Patent reform. There are some moves afoot in Congress, but they are low key as of yet. Dragged into this quagmire is Copyright. Moves by Disney, et al, to extend Copyright protection almost indefinitely will stress the concept of Copyright, and put us all in jeopardy of not knowing what we can use, read, copy, or prognosticate on without someone asking, somewhat forcefully, for their royalty payment on whatever they feel is theirs, even if it was written 200 years ago, lapsed, and was re-animated by lawyers (doing something even Dr. Frankstein couldn't do.)

I think that piracy is indeed an issue, particularly in some parts of the world where the whole notion of ownership is quite academic (the government, or the rich own it, everyone else is there by the grace of Budha.) These areas need to be strongly persuaded that Copyright in it's simplest form is a good thing, if for no other reason that to protect out inventiveness.

However, here, the whole issue is taking off in new and ever more obscure ways. The DMCA (Digital Millennium Copyright Act) has take the sublime to the ridiculous. Fortunately, courts here have struck down a goodly chunk of this bad law, but a great deal of it remains, and it needs to be removed if for no other reason than to clean up the mess it has created. The most recent insanity was the claim by a spyware creator that his code could not be looked at to stop the spyware functioning as it was a breach of the DMCA. The fact that this software is invading your computer without your permission, it is stealing your data without your control and it is exposing you to invasions by other devious entities, seems to have been completely dismissed.

Probably before the year is out, we will see some movement in the legal status of copyrights, patent reform and DMCA revocation.

Quantum computing

2006 could see a major breakthrough in quantum computing. The breakthrough will likely be in the area of packaging, but could lead to the concept of commercially available quantum computing systems in a short time period. We would be looking at the combining on many facets of current development (light/laser based 'transistors', memory devices with sufficient states to handle quantum values, links, and quantum computing logic gates). We are close to something happening in this sphere. Quantum computing will turn computing on its head, it will bring in a whole new set of challenges and opportunities. Not least of these challenges will be how to program the beasts.

This is a small selection of things to expect in 2006. Will they come to pass? Who knows, but without people doing the dreaming there would be no advances, so I think I have to continue dreaming, too.

See you in 2006, and beyond.