Why a small nuke is still a NUKE

Whiteman Airbase in Missouri must be a-buzz. Potentially someone there could be flying the first bomber ever to leave these shores with a nuke, and not come back with it. The story was printed at the weekend that plans to bomb Iran, potentially with conventional or nuclear weapons are afoot.

In 2002, the Whitehouse rescinded a previous "no first strike" mandate, and it looks now if the Whitehouse may be using that opening to plan something nasty.

There are enormous issues at stake here, not just the emotive lunacy of using a nuclear weapon, but technical, political and logistic mountains.

In some ways this may be the Whitehouse trying to counter the crazy rhetoric coming out of Teheran. Sort of 'match madness with madness.' It's a scary road to climb on to, and we have to hope all those in the front know what they are doing and can get off this thing before midnight arrives. Sabre rattling of this ilk has never done anyone any good.

Technical

The chosen nuke would be the B61-11, a 'ground penetrator' bomb that would be delivered, probably by a B-1, or B-2; try taking a guess which is more suited? It has somewhat limited abilities in regards to the territory that it would be asked to operate in - it doesn't like solid rock, preferring more sedimentary areas - so that the shock way can penetrate better. Most western nuclear facilities are build either on or near igneous formations so they are better protected in case of earthquakes, one has to presume the Iranians have done something similar with their facilities, even if digging the deep bomb building chambers was hard.

The last time the US, or any signatory of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, actually fired off a bomb was a goodly time ago. We have certainly had the Dept Of Energy looking at ways of making sure these bombs are well kept, but no one really has a clue to whether one of these is going to go bang! or phut! If it were to go phut! we would just have given the Iranians all the Plutonium they need to do some fairly comprehensive modifications to the Eastern end of the Mediterranean.

Political

Technically we are not in a state of War with Iran, we are ostensibly 'friendly', well, let's say frosty. But not warring. To drop a Nuke without declaring War would be to do what the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor - and it would be just as unforgivable. There would have to be significant levels of spin to get the US population behind the idea of declaring war on a 3rd country in a far off part of the world, while in the other two areas we have significant levels of unfinished work. Domestically it's going to be a hard sell, impeachment would be the first and simplest response to Presidential lunacy. Wholesale civil unrest would potentially be on the cards.

While pressing this through at home may be a possibility, pressing it through at the UN or any other International forum will not be so easy. China and Russia have both worked hard to tame Iranian vitriol, with minor success, but if we were to Nuke their potential economic partner - Iran sells oil to many parts of the world - they might not be too happy. They may in fact, note that they have lost a nuke or two. Wonder where they went, they were here last night, must have got legs and wandered, Oh well! What would North Korea care if it got a steady supply of Oil in exchange for a bomb?

Logistical

We have 130,000 service men and women in Iraq, and some 16,000, or so, in Afghanistan. If we drop a bomb in Iran, there will be nuclear fall-out, prevailing winds could blow the fall out any direction, but we have our people on both sides of this, that means we will need to supply our people with NBC suites and medical facilities to support a nuclear campaign (how the NATO troops hated those NBC suites and they only had to worry about 75 degree weather.) NBC suites were deployed in the first Gulf War, and were worn on many occasions, but for relatively short periods. Fall-out would present a whole new nightmare; wearing suites for days and weeks, potentially. Furthermore, until it was full ascertained that the troops were clean, they would not be able to be moved, so if something were to happen as a consequence of this action, as much as a quarter of the US military would be on the beach, sunning themselves in rubber suites, unable to help. Clever. Of course we could pull them out, but that would be self defeating in other ways.

Closing

Being the Prez is not an easy job. No one has ever said it was. But you have at your disposal as Commander in Chief, the best brains in the land. America has a lot of great minds, most are appalled by this 'planning' and infuriated by the lack of input to the decision making process. Iran has to be treated like a respectable neighbor, if it shows tantrums, fine, but we can't nuke them. There is no upside to Nukes. A tactical Nuke is a Nuke. It is not a small bomb, it is a nuclear device. There is no scale. It will lead to a catastrophe, and MAD.