What of the future

The Facts...

On Friday, an F-15C broke up over Missouriwhile on a regular training flight. The USAirforce has grounded the entire F-15 fleet,including the slightly newer F-15E's.

The query

Is this just another sign of the rundown stateof the US military? A force bleed white by thestress of two wars and innumerable deployments. Oris it just some maintenance gaff by tired hands?Or is it something more fundamental like the F-15series has had a weak knee all along and we neverknew about it?

Speculation

My bet is on some iffy maintenance, someone putthe inversion climometer the wrong way round onthe upper ventral ballast mast... however, theother potential failures have vastly more mindnumbing implications.

If the issue is a force wide problem of failingmaintenance at the depot level because of Iraq andAfghan demands then the whole force is clearly ina pretty shaky position. This could affect farmore than just high performance F-15's, it couldbe the whole shebang. Recently I saw NationalGuard units going on exercise, with Humvee doorsduct taped in place. What's going on?

F-15's need lots of training to fly, yet wekeep hearing that todays fighter jockeys aregetting less seat time than Soviet pilots got inthe late 1980's, and they got almost nothing byour standards of the day. Less seat time moreaccidents.

The F-15C is the primary air superiorityfighter in the US arsenal, it is THE aircraft theUS would depend upon to wrestle dominance of thesky from a potential adversary. It will remain inthat lofty position for probably another 5 yearsuntil the F-22 fleet is large enough to take therole on. With 700 C, D and E models in theinventory, it's a big player in anyones game book.

Should this have been a fundamental fatigueissue with some component, the same concerns canbe raised - can the aircraft do the job it'srequired to do? An even more alarming prognosisfor the Airforce awaits if this is the case: ifthey need to repair large numbers of F-15's with,say, new wing spars, then the cost could eat intothe non-existent budget available for the F-22purchase. Either way such scenarios don't play outwell.

The Airforce is depending on the F-15 to staythe course, and to get its 'full' complement ofsome 260+ F-22's. If the F-15 can't go thedistance, then there is a hole in our defences.The F-22 is but 20 aircraft in the USinventory, maybe 50 by the end of 2008. It's notcapable of picking up 700 some open slots withthese numbers, especially if the F-15 fleet facesan early grave in Arizona.

One other thing this could potentially scuppersis any thought of buying F-15's to fill-in for theF-22, should there be some unforeseen productionmishap. That will please a lot of Generals in thePentagon who have faced withering fire from thepoliticians over making sure there are aircraft onthe production lines between the F-22 and theF-35.

At least the pilot bailed out of this break up;can the US Airforce find an equally successfulending to a nasty situation?