BMD in the raw

Target Ahoy!

This week sometime, this being Feb 2008, wewill likely see an attempt to shoot at a passingsatellite from an Aegis class cruiser using amodified SM3 missile just off Hawaii.

It has been reported today that the initialattempts may be called off because of high seas,there being a 6 - 8 foot swell off Hawaii.

Way back when, NATO's big fear was that theywould be caught out by the atheist Reds, on aChristmas Eve, in the middle of a snow storm, by7000 tanks rolling into West Germany, while ourtroops prayed at home with their families.Fortunately it never happened.

BMD has faced a reality issue from day one;could it shoot down a surprise missile launch byan unfriendly country? Do we have theresources to find the target, track it, and shootit down, presumably in difficult circumstanceswith little warning?

We now have the satellite, USA-193, wingingit's lonely, chilly, way across the sky aboutevery 90 minutes. It's been doing this, lower andlower, since it's launch in 2004. It's orbit isknown to within a few arc seconds. Even thecivilian Satellite hounds know where it is. Thisis the target we will try and shoot at. It's inthe crosshairs.

Rough Seas

I used to live by the North Sea, a flat calmday still had a 4 foot swell. A rough day in theSouthern basis saw 70 foot seas. Heck, it's hardcatching fish in this, let alone launching acomplex missile at a target 150 miles over yourhead, moving at 17,000+ miles per hour.

The US Navy has fired at SCUD class targetswith the SM3 on a number of occasions verysuccessfully, but the conditions in which thoseintercepts took place seem to have been optimal.

It could be that to shoot at this satellite,the SM3 is at the edge of its envelope, but theNavy has not indicated that. The Navy has statedthey have several shots at this thing, three to beprecise. That one will be made, and decisions togo again will be made if it is deemed necessary.This sounds like confident talk.

When the Brass came out today and said thisswell was going to limit possible engagementopportunities, the ability of BMD systems tofunction in a rough and ready world had to bequestioned. If they miss this satellite becausethe waves were too "rough" what does it say to theIranians about our first line of missile defense?What does it say about our ability to react to asurprise launch? On a future, blustery Christmaseve, perhaps?

We have to wish the Navy good luck in this andhope it works out. I certainly wouldn't like 2500kgs of steaming Hydrazine filled satelliteremains sitting in my back garden. That said, itmakes me wonder even more, just what have we gotfor the Billions of Dollars spent on BMD over thelast 3 decades?

Addendum

The Navy fired the SM3 and hit the satellite atthe first try. So much for soothsaying!

The scattering of the satellite will now takesome time to determine. While much of it willcontinue to descend to an untimely end and burnup in the atmosphere, parts will have beeninvigorated in a classic transfer of energy andpunched into much higher orbits. The large stuffwill come down soon, but the small particles oftitanium, aluminium, carbon fiber, paint flecksand other detritus that has been energized by thiscould take years to come down. This is the stuffof space faring nightmares

So who looks better here? The USA or China? Ithink they both lost. They are sparing in an arenaneither has the right to be in. The tax payers ofboth countries have to face the possibility thatthis just started a new, ugly and very expensivearms race. It also guarantees that in the openingminutes of a next generation conflict, space willbe full of junk, not intelligence gathering tools.